What are the midterms?
"Midterms" are the national elections held halfway through a president's four-year term. Donald Trump isn't on the ballot, but they decide who controls Congress for his last two years — and so whether his agenda can pass. Historically, the president's party usually loses seats in midterms.
What's on the ballot?
| Seats up | Now | |
|---|---|---|
| House of Representatives | All 435 | 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats, 1 independent, 2 vacant |
| Senate | 35 (33 regular + 2 special) | 53 Republicans, 47 Democrats (including 2 independents) |
| Governors | 36 | 18 Democrats, 18 Republicans among the seats up |
The two special Senate elections are in Ohio (for JD Vance's old seat, now held by Jon Husted) and Florida (for Marco Rubio's old seat, now held by Ashley Moody).
To win control, Democrats need a net gain of 3 seats in the House (218 for a majority) and 4 in the Senate — because a 50–50 Senate is broken by Vice-President Vance, a Republican.
What do the polls say?
The "generic ballot" asks voters which party they want to control Congress:
President Trump's approval rating is about 36–40% in polling averages, with around 60% disapproving. One Reuters/Ipsos poll (22–26 October) put it at a record low of about 31–32%.
Polls have been wrong before, in both directions — treat them as a guide, not a result.
What do the forecasters say?
- House: the Cook Political Report (23 October) rates 220 seats as leaning Democratic, 198 Republican and 17 toss-ups, and sees a Democratic gain of about 12–22 seats as most likely.
- Senate: Cook lists 7 toss-ups — Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas — six of them held by Republicans. Sabato's Crystal Ball (27 October) gives Democrats a "slight advantage" and says Maine and Texas are the most likely to decide control.
The Senate races to watch
| State | Republican | Democrat | Polls (late Oct) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maine | Susan Collins* | Troy Jackson | Tied to Jackson +2 |
| Texas (open) | Ken Paxton | James Talarico | Talarico +1.8 (average) |
| Michigan (open) | Mike Rogers | Abdul El-Sayed | El-Sayed +6 (one poll) |
| Ohio (special) | Jon Husted* | Sherrod Brown | Brown +3.3 (average) |
| Iowa (open) | Ashley Hinson | Josh Turek | Hinson +0.6 (average) |
| Alaska | Dan Sullivan* | Mary Peltola | Peltola about +2 (average) |
\ current senator*
Democrats also lead in Georgia, where Jon Ossoff is defending his seat, and in the open seat in New Hampshire. In North Carolina, former governor Roy Cooper (D) is favoured to win an open seat that Republicans currently hold.
Why the maps changed
Several states redrew their House districts mid-decade, which is unusual. Republican-led Texas (+5 seats for the GOP), Florida, Ohio, Missouri and others drew new maps; Democratic-led California answered with Proposition 50, passed in November 2025, aiming for +5 Democratic seats. Estimates of the overall effect range from about 3 to 9 seats in Republicans' favour — which is why Democrats need more than a small lead in the popular vote.
Early voting
More than 34 million Americans had already voted by 27 October, according to the University of Florida's Election Lab — on track to beat the 2022 midterms. Early-vote numbers do not reliably predict the result.
The controversies
- Alaska: the Justice Department has sued to block certification of the Senate result if Mary Peltola wins, arguing that another candidate named Daniel J. Sullivan on the ballot could confuse voters. Trump said he ordered the suit. Many legal experts have dismissed the claim; a judge has agreed to hear it quickly.
- Mail voting: a March 2026 executive order on mail ballots and citizenship checks was partly blocked by a judge, then partly allowed by the Supreme Court; parts are still being fought in court.
- Election monitors: the Justice Department plans about 1,000 monitors across all 50 states — more than double 2022.
When will we know the results?
The first polls close at 6pm Eastern on 3 November. Many House and Senate races will be called that night — but some states count slowly:
- California counts mail ballots that arrive up to 7 days after Election Day, so close House races can take a week or more.
- Alaska and Maine use ranked-choice voting, which can take days — and if Senate control hangs on Alaska, it could take weeks.
Sources: Ballotpedia, Congress Countdown, US News, RealClearPolling, Silver Bulletin, Cook Political Report via The Hill, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Forbes, NPR, Alaska Beacon, PBS, SCOTUSblog and KQED. Polls and ratings as of 28 October 2026.
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